The Stall in the Fertility Transition in Kenya
Analytical Studies 9

This report analyzes the recent stall in the fertility decline in Kenya based on the results of the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Kenya and other national fertility and contraceptive data. The fertility rate had been declining and the contraceptive prevalence had been increasing since the 1970s, but between 1998 and 2003, the decline in fertility stalled.

This analysis finds that the reversal of the fertility decline is most pronounced among the least educated women, and the stall in contraceptive use is found primarily among younger women and those with less education. The type of contraceptive used has also changed in the past ten years: oral contraceptives, IUD and sterilization have become less popular, while the use of injectables increased.

A full explanation for the stall in the fertility decline is lacking, but analysis of associated indicators may improve understanding of the trend. For example, the proportion of women who want no more children has risen in recent years, after decades of decline. This may be due to the role of HIV/AIDS and its effect on child mortality; women who have experienced the death of a child may be more likely than other women to want another child. Shortages of contraceptive supplies may also have played a role in the stall in the fertility decline.

For the entire report, go to: http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/AS9/AS9.pdf